A clearer way
to read the game.
Independent numbers. Evidence behind every opinion. A permanent record of every official pick.
Power rating
How strong is each team on a neutral field?
We begin with team values expressed in points. They give every matchup a consistent starting point.
Home field
How much is this venue worth?
The venue and game context inform the home-field value applied to the matchup.
Matchup adjustments
Does this opponent create a meaningful edge?
Supported matchup, availability and situational evidence inform the Final Line. A compelling story alone is not an adjustment.
Projected score
What does the offense-vs-defense model expect?
Our independent scoring model evaluates both offenses against the opposing defenses. Its projected margin and total offer another view of the game.
Market comparison
How different is our number from the sportsbook?
We compare our numbers with available spreads and totals. A model edge is a difference in opinion, not a guarantee.
FreeWinner
Only qualifying edges become official picks.
Picks that meet the established requirements publish automatically. The released number is permanently recorded, and every graded result stays visible.
WHY CAN OUR LINE AND PROJECTED SCORE DIFFER?
Our Final Line and Projected Score come from two separate models.
The Final Line is our official handicap number, built from our team power ratings, home field and game-specific adjustments. The Projected Score comes from an independent offense-vs-defense scoring model that estimates the points scored by each team and its own implied margin.
Because they measure the game differently, the numbers will not always match. We do not average them. Our official side recommendations are based on the Final Line, while the Projected Score is used as an independent cross-check and game-flow estimate.
When necessary evidence is missing, the affected projection stays unavailable.
FreeWinners are official picks. Leans are research. Pass and No Play are useful conclusions too.
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