01
Blended QB grade · ZQuarterbacks
ARI-0.19
SF1.26
ARI · Jacoby Brissett: 70 current dropbacks. 35.0% current / 65.0% prior-season baseline. SF · Brock Purdy: 61 current dropbacks. 30.5% current / 69.5% prior-season baseline.
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/ THE NUMBERSIndependent. Game specific.Final Line and Projected Score are independent models.
Our Final Line and Projected Score come from two separate models.
The Final Line is our official handicap number, built from our team power ratings, home field and game-specific adjustments. The Projected Score comes from an independent offense-vs-defense scoring model that estimates the points scored by each team and its own implied margin.
Because they measure the game differently, the numbers will not always match. We do not average them. Our official side recommendations are based on the Final Line, while the Projected Score is used as an independent cross-check and game-flow estimate.
The gap compares the displayed Final Line with the independent scoring margin before its display rounding. Status describes the difference only; it does not change recommendations.
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Independent score model
No qualifying player prop for this game.
The market sees SF -7.5.
Our number sees SF -8.5.
The Power Line begins at SF -8.5. Matchup adjustments take our Final Line to SF -8.5. The independent score projection puts 49ers at 28.7 and Cardinals at 17.5.
The matchup adjustments do not add an edge for 49ers. Their offensive efficiency and the opposing pass defense, compared below, frame the challenge.
The matchup adjustments do not add an edge for Cardinals. Their offensive efficiency and the opposing pass defense, compared below, frame the challenge.
Two teams. The same measures. QB grades blend current performance with the prior-season baseline; other measures show current-season production.
ARI · Jacoby Brissett: 70 current dropbacks. 35.0% current / 65.0% prior-season baseline. SF · Brock Purdy: 61 current dropbacks. 30.5% current / 69.5% prior-season baseline.
Current-season passing efficiency; higher is stronger.
Protection meets pressure. Blocking meets resistance.
Unit grades are standard deviations from league average; higher is stronger. Meters use a shared −3 to +3 scale. Grade advantage compares unit profiles and does not add points to our line.
Why this matchup matters.
Tight end receiving
8.11 yards allowed per target
16.4% of team targets
46 targets in the supporting 2025 coverage sample. Yards per target above his overall baseline.
Carson Beck · QB · Coach's Decision — Out
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson · S · Back — Out
Reggie Virgil · WR · Coach's Decision — Out
Josh Fryar · OT · Coach's Decision — Out
Andrew Billings · DT · Coach's Decision — Out
Ephesians Prysock · CB · Coach's Decision — Out
Kurtis Rourke · QB · Coach's Decision — Out
James Thompson Jr. · DT · Ankle — Out
Romello Height · DE · Hand — Out
Tatum Bethune · LB · Coach's Decision — Out
Power Line SF -8.5. Final Line SF -8.5. Score Model SF -11.0. These independent views are not averaged.
Opening spread SF -11.5 → current -7.5. Opening total 46.5 → current 48.5.
Neutral ratings: ARI -1 / SF +5.8. Home field 1.6. Side adjustment 0.
Schedule and injuries: espn. Retrieved Sep 27, 3:40 PM ET.
Market: DraftKings. Retrieved Sep 27, 3:40 PM ET. Numbers may have moved.
ARI: 2026 efficiency sample through week 2.
SF: 2026 efficiency sample through week 2.
Share of offensive plays generating explosive gains.
Current-season pass defense; lower allowed EPA is stronger.