01
Blended QB grade · ZQuarterbacks
KC0.37
MIA—
KC · Patrick Mahomes: 84 current dropbacks. 42.0% current / 58.0% prior-season baseline. MIA · Malik Willis: 65 current dropbacks. 32.5% current / 67.5% prior-season baseline.
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/ THE NUMBERSIndependent. Game specific.Final Line and Projected Score are independent models.
Our Final Line and Projected Score come from two separate models.
The Final Line is our official handicap number, built from our team power ratings, home field and game-specific adjustments. The Projected Score comes from an independent offense-vs-defense scoring model that estimates the points scored by each team and its own implied margin.
Because they measure the game differently, the numbers will not always match. We do not average them. Our official side recommendations are based on the Final Line, while the Projected Score is used as an independent cross-check and game-flow estimate.
The gap compares the displayed Final Line with the independent scoring margin before its display rounding. Status describes the difference only; it does not change recommendations.
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Independent score model
No qualifying player prop for this game.
The market sees MIA +10.
Our number sees KC -12.5.
The Power Line begins at KC -12.5. Matchup adjustments take our Final Line to KC -12.5. The independent score projection puts Dolphins at 20.2 and Chiefs at 26.7.
The matchup adjustments do not add an edge for Dolphins. Their offensive efficiency and the opposing pass defense, compared below, frame the challenge.
The matchup adjustments do not add an edge for Chiefs. Their offensive efficiency and the opposing pass defense, compared below, frame the challenge.
Two teams. The same measures. QB grades blend current performance with the prior-season baseline; other measures show current-season production.
KC · Patrick Mahomes: 84 current dropbacks. 42.0% current / 58.0% prior-season baseline. MIA · Malik Willis: 65 current dropbacks. 32.5% current / 67.5% prior-season baseline.
Current-season passing efficiency; higher is stronger.
Protection meets pressure. Blocking meets resistance.
Unit grades are standard deviations from league average; higher is stronger. Meters use a shared −3 to +3 scale. Grade advantage compares unit profiles and does not add points to our line.
Tyreke Smith · DE · Coach's Decision — Out
Cooper McDonald · LB · Knee — Injured Reserve
Omarr Norman-Lott · DT · Knee - ACL — Out
Jimmy Holiday · WR · Undisclosed — Injured Reserve
Jeff Caldwell · WR · Knee — Injured Reserve
De'Von Achane · RB · Knee — Out
Brady Cook · QB · Coach's Decision — Out
Jaylen Wright · RB · Foot — Out
Marcellas Dial Jr. · CB · Coach's Decision — Out
Caleb Douglas · WR · Ankle — Out
Power Line KC -12.5. Final Line KC -12.5. Score Model KC -6.5. These independent views are not averaged.
Opening spread MIA +7 → current +10. Opening total 44.5 → current 45.5.
Neutral ratings: KC +5.1 / MIA -9. Home field 1.8. Side adjustment 0.
Schedule and injuries: espn. Retrieved Sep 27, 3:40 PM ET.
Market: DraftKings. Retrieved Sep 27, 12:57 PM ET. Numbers may have moved.
KC: 2026 efficiency sample through week 2.
MIA: 2026 efficiency sample through week 2.
Share of offensive plays generating explosive gains.
Current-season pass defense; lower allowed EPA is stronger.