01
Blended QB grade · ZQuarterbacks
PHI0.28
CHI—
PHI · Jalen Hurts: 75 current dropbacks. 37.5% current / 62.5% prior-season baseline. CHI · Tyson Bagent: 9 current dropbacks. 4.5% current / 95.5% prior-season baseline.
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/ THE NUMBERSIndependent. Game specific.Final Line and Projected Score are independent models.
Our Final Line and Projected Score come from two separate models.
The Final Line is our official handicap number, built from our team power ratings, home field and game-specific adjustments. The Projected Score comes from an independent offense-vs-defense scoring model that estimates the points scored by each team and its own implied margin.
Because they measure the game differently, the numbers will not always match. We do not average them. Our official side recommendations are based on the Final Line, while the Projected Score is used as an independent cross-check and game-flow estimate.
The gap compares the displayed Final Line with the independent scoring margin before its display rounding. Status describes the difference only; it does not change recommendations.
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Independent score model
No qualifying player prop for this game.
The market sees CHI +4.5.
Our number sees CHI -2.0.
The Power Line begins at CHI -1.5. Matchup adjustments take our Final Line to CHI -2.0. The independent score projection puts Bears at 25.8 and Eagles at 23.5.
Bears receive support from the personnel matchup. It contributes 0.3 points in their direction.
The matchup adjustments do not add an edge for Eagles. Their offensive efficiency and the opposing pass defense, compared below, frame the challenge.
Two teams. The same measures. QB grades blend current performance with the prior-season baseline; other measures show current-season production.
PHI · Jalen Hurts: 75 current dropbacks. 37.5% current / 62.5% prior-season baseline. CHI · Tyson Bagent: 9 current dropbacks. 4.5% current / 95.5% prior-season baseline.
Current-season passing efficiency; higher is stronger.
Protection meets pressure. Blocking meets resistance.
Unit grades are standard deviations from league average; higher is stronger. Meters use a shared −3 to +3 scale. Grade advantage compares unit profiles and does not add points to our line.
Why this matchup matters.
Wide receiver receiving
9.07 yards allowed per target
33.9% of team targets
No qualifying historical coverage advantage established.
Fred Johnson · OT · Knee — Out
Jonathan Greenard · LB · Pectoral — Questionable
Hollywood Brown · WR · Ankle — Out
Dallas Goedert · TE · Knee - MCL — Out
Landon Dickerson · G · Knee — Injured Reserve
Anthony Johnson Jr. · S · Undisclosed — Injured Reserve
Caleb Williams · QB · Hamstring — Out
Shemar Turner · DT · Knee - ACL — Out
Noah Sewell · LB · Achilles — Out
Kyler Gordon · CB · Calf — Out
Power Line CHI -1.5. Final Line CHI -2.0. Score Model CHI -2.5. These independent views are not averaged.
Opening spread CHI -1.5 → current +4.5. Opening total 46.5 → current 41.5.
Neutral ratings: PHI +3.9 / CHI +3.7. Home field 1.9. Side adjustment +0.3.
Schedule and injuries: espn. Retrieved Sep 27, 3:40 PM ET.
Market: DraftKings. Retrieved Sep 27, 3:40 PM ET. Numbers may have moved.
PHI: 2026 efficiency sample through week 2.
CHI: 2026 efficiency sample through week 2.
Share of offensive plays generating explosive gains.
Current-season pass defense; lower allowed EPA is stronger.