01
Blended QB grade · ZQuarterbacks
NYJ-0.55
DET0.44
NYJ · Geno Smith: 74 current dropbacks. 37.0% current / 63.0% prior-season baseline. DET · Jared Goff: 85 current dropbacks. 42.5% current / 57.5% prior-season baseline.
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/ THE NUMBERSIndependent. Game specific.Final Line and Projected Score are independent models.
Our Final Line and Projected Score come from two separate models.
The Final Line is our official handicap number, built from our team power ratings, home field and game-specific adjustments. The Projected Score comes from an independent offense-vs-defense scoring model that estimates the points scored by each team and its own implied margin.
Because they measure the game differently, the numbers will not always match. We do not average them. Our official side recommendations are based on the Final Line, while the Projected Score is used as an independent cross-check and game-flow estimate.
The gap compares the displayed Final Line with the independent scoring margin before its display rounding. Status describes the difference only; it does not change recommendations.
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Independent score model
OVER 89.5 Rushing Yards
Release preserved · not currently playable
The market sees DET -7.
Our number sees DET -1.5.
The Power Line begins at DET -1.5. Matchup adjustments take our Final Line to DET -1.5. The independent score projection puts Lions at 29.1 and Jets at 22.4.
Lions receive support from the personnel matchup. It contributes 0.3 points in their direction.
Jets receive support from the personnel matchup. It contributes 0.3 points in their direction.
Two teams. The same measures. QB grades blend current performance with the prior-season baseline; other measures show current-season production.
NYJ · Geno Smith: 74 current dropbacks. 37.0% current / 63.0% prior-season baseline. DET · Jared Goff: 85 current dropbacks. 42.5% current / 57.5% prior-season baseline.
Current-season passing efficiency; higher is stronger.
Share of offensive plays generating explosive gains.
Protection meets pressure. Blocking meets resistance.
Unit grades are standard deviations from league average; higher is stronger. Meters use a shared −3 to +3 scale. Grade advantage compares unit profiles and does not add points to our line.
Breece Hall · RB · Thigh — Out
Dylan Parham · G · Knee — Out
Nahshon Wright · CB · Coach's Decision — Out
Blake Grupe · PK · Coach's Decision — Out
Mason Taylor · TE · Thumb — Out
Tyler Conklin · TE · Coach's Decision — Out
Devin White · LB · Coach's Decision — Out
Mekhi Wingo · DT · Coach's Decision — Out
Bishop Fitzgerald · S · Coach's Decision — Out
Ahmed Hassanein · DE · Coach's Decision — Out
Power Line DET -1.5. Final Line DET -1.5. Score Model DET -6.5. These independent views are not averaged.
Opening spread DET -9.5 → current -7. Opening total 44.5 → current 49.5.
Neutral ratings: NYJ -0.5 / DET -1. Home field 2.1. Side adjustment 0.
Schedule and injuries: espn. Retrieved Sep 27, 3:40 PM ET.
Market: DraftKings. Retrieved Sep 27, 12:57 PM ET. Numbers may have moved.
NYJ: 2026 efficiency sample through week 2.
DET: 2026 efficiency sample through week 2.
Current-season pass defense; lower allowed EPA is stronger.