01
Blended QB grade · ZQuarterbacks
CAR0.15
CLE-0.96
CAR · Bryce Young: 80 current dropbacks. 40.0% current / 60.0% prior-season baseline. CLE · Deshaun Watson: 65 current dropbacks. 32.5% current / 67.5% prior-season baseline.
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/ THE NUMBERSIndependent. Game specific.Final Line and Projected Score are independent models.
Our Final Line and Projected Score come from two separate models.
The Final Line is our official handicap number, built from our team power ratings, home field and game-specific adjustments. The Projected Score comes from an independent offense-vs-defense scoring model that estimates the points scored by each team and its own implied margin.
Because they measure the game differently, the numbers will not always match. We do not average them. Our official side recommendations are based on the Final Line, while the Projected Score is used as an independent cross-check and game-flow estimate.
The gap compares the displayed Final Line with the independent scoring margin before its display rounding. Status describes the difference only; it does not change recommendations.
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Independent score model
UNDER 61.5 Rushing Yards
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The market sees CLE +2.5.
Our number sees CAR -5.0.
The Power Line begins at CAR -4.5. Matchup adjustments take our Final Line to CAR -5.0. The independent score projection puts Browns at 21.2 and Panthers at 23.8.
Browns receive support from the personnel matchup. It contributes 0.3 points in their direction.
Panthers receive support from the personnel matchup. It contributes 0.5 points in their direction.
Two teams. The same measures. QB grades blend current performance with the prior-season baseline; other measures show current-season production.
CAR · Bryce Young: 80 current dropbacks. 40.0% current / 60.0% prior-season baseline. CLE · Deshaun Watson: 65 current dropbacks. 32.5% current / 67.5% prior-season baseline.
Current-season passing efficiency; higher is stronger.
Share of offensive plays generating explosive gains.
Protection meets pressure. Blocking meets resistance.
Unit grades are standard deviations from league average; higher is stronger. Meters use a shared −3 to +3 scale. Grade advantage compares unit profiles and does not add points to our line.
Jalen Coker · WR · Quadriceps — Out
Damien Lewis · G · Elbow — Questionable
Mike Jackson · CB · Groin — Questionable
Haynes King · QB · Coach's Decision — Out
Ja'Tavion Sanders · TE · Coach's Decision — Out
Tyson Campbell · CB · Hip — Out
Taylen Green · QB · Coach's Decision — Out
Justin Jefferson · LB · Coach's Decision — Out
Teven Jenkins · G · Back — Out
Parker Brailsford · C · Coach's Decision — Out
Power Line CAR -4.5. Final Line CAR -5.0. Score Model CAR -2.5. These independent views are not averaged.
Opening spread CLE +1.5 → current +2.5. Opening total 39.5 → current 41.5.
Neutral ratings: CAR +2.5 / CLE -4. Home field 1.9. Side adjustment -0.3.
Schedule and injuries: espn. Retrieved Sep 27, 3:40 PM ET.
Market: DraftKings. Retrieved Sep 27, 12:57 PM ET. Numbers may have moved.
CAR: 2026 efficiency sample through week 2.
CLE: 2026 efficiency sample through week 2.
Current-season pass defense; lower allowed EPA is stronger.