01
Blended QB grade · ZQuarterbacks
NE1.04
JAX0.25
NE · Drake Maye: 69 current dropbacks. 34.5% current / 65.5% prior-season baseline. JAX · Trevor Lawrence: 55 current dropbacks. 27.5% current / 72.5% prior-season baseline.
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/ THE NUMBERSIndependent. Game specific.Final Line and Projected Score are independent models.
Our Final Line and Projected Score come from two separate models.
The Final Line is our official handicap number, built from our team power ratings, home field and game-specific adjustments. The Projected Score comes from an independent offense-vs-defense scoring model that estimates the points scored by each team and its own implied margin.
Because they measure the game differently, the numbers will not always match. We do not average them. Our official side recommendations are based on the Final Line, while the Projected Score is used as an independent cross-check and game-flow estimate.
The gap compares the displayed Final Line with the independent scoring margin before its display rounding. Status describes the difference only; it does not change recommendations.
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Independent score model
No qualifying player prop for this game.
The market sees JAX -3.
Our number sees JAX -3.0.
The Power Line begins at JAX -2.5. Matchup adjustments take our Final Line to JAX -3.0. The independent score projection puts Jaguars at 22.2 and Patriots at 18.6.
Jaguars receive support from the personnel matchup. It contributes 0.3 points in their direction.
The matchup adjustments do not add an edge for Patriots. Their offensive efficiency and the opposing pass defense, compared below, frame the challenge.
Two teams. The same measures. QB grades blend current performance with the prior-season baseline; other measures show current-season production.
NE · Drake Maye: 69 current dropbacks. 34.5% current / 65.5% prior-season baseline. JAX · Trevor Lawrence: 55 current dropbacks. 27.5% current / 72.5% prior-season baseline.
Current-season passing efficiency; higher is stronger.
Protection meets pressure. Blocking meets resistance.
Unit grades are standard deviations from league average; higher is stronger. Meters use a shared −3 to +3 scale. Grade advantage compares unit profiles and does not add points to our line.
Greg Van Roten · G · Thigh — Questionable
Christian Barmore · DT · Shoulder — Questionable
Behren Morton · QB · Coach's Decision — Out
Craig Woodson · S · Shoulder — Out
Eli Raridon · TE · Thigh — Out
CJ Williams · WR · Coach's Decision — Out
Albert Regis · DT · Elbow — Out
Wesley Williams · DE · Coach's Decision — Out
Jack Kiser · LB · Coach's Decision — Out
Daniel Faalele · G · Coach's Decision — Out
Power Line JAX -2.5. Final Line JAX -3.0. Score Model JAX -3.5. These independent views are not averaged.
Opening spread JAX -1.5 → current -3. Opening total 45.5 → current 46.5.
Neutral ratings: NE +3.9 / JAX +4.7. Home field 1.9. Side adjustment +0.3.
Schedule and injuries: espn. Retrieved Sep 27, 3:40 PM ET.
Market: DraftKings. Retrieved Sep 27, 12:57 PM ET. Numbers may have moved.
NE: 2026 efficiency sample through week 2.
JAX: 2026 efficiency sample through week 2.
Share of offensive plays generating explosive gains.
Current-season pass defense; lower allowed EPA is stronger.