01
Blended QB grade · ZQuarterbacks
SEA0.66
WAS0.14
SEA · Sam Darnold: 3 current dropbacks. 1.5% current / 98.5% prior-season baseline. WAS · Marcus Mariota: 17 current dropbacks. 8.5% current / 91.5% prior-season baseline.
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/ THE NUMBERSIndependent. Game specific.Final Line and Projected Score are independent models.
Our Final Line and Projected Score come from two separate models.
The Final Line is our official handicap number, built from our team power ratings, home field and game-specific adjustments. The Projected Score comes from an independent offense-vs-defense scoring model that estimates the points scored by each team and its own implied margin.
Because they measure the game differently, the numbers will not always match. We do not average them. Our official side recommendations are based on the Final Line, while the Projected Score is used as an independent cross-check and game-flow estimate.
The gap compares the displayed Final Line with the independent scoring margin before its display rounding. Status describes the difference only; it does not change recommendations.
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Independent score model
OVER 91.5 Receiving Yards
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The market sees WAS +8.5.
Our number sees SEA -6.5.
The Power Line begins at SEA -6.0. Matchup adjustments take our Final Line to SEA -6.5. The independent score projection puts Commanders at 19.3 and Seahawks at 25.9.
The matchup adjustments do not add an edge for Commanders. Their offensive efficiency and the opposing pass defense, compared below, frame the challenge.
Seahawks receive support from the personnel matchup. It contributes 0.3 points in their direction.
Two teams. The same measures. QB grades blend current performance with the prior-season baseline; other measures show current-season production.
SEA · Sam Darnold: 3 current dropbacks. 1.5% current / 98.5% prior-season baseline. WAS · Marcus Mariota: 17 current dropbacks. 8.5% current / 91.5% prior-season baseline.
Current-season passing efficiency; higher is stronger.
Protection meets pressure. Blocking meets resistance.
Unit grades are standard deviations from league average; higher is stronger. Meters use a shared −3 to +3 scale. Grade advantage compares unit profiles and does not add points to our line.
Montorie Foster Jr. · WR · Coach's Decision — Out
Jalen Milroe · QB · Coach's Decision — Out
Brandon Pili · DT · Concussion — Out
Avery Smith · CB · Coach's Decision — Out
Julian Love · S · Calf — Out
Leo Chenal · LB · Neck — Questionable
Rachaad White · RB · Shoulder — Questionable
Javontae Jean-Baptiste · LB · Coach's Decision — Out
Frankie Luvu · LB · Groin — Out
Chig Okonkwo · TE · Hamstring — Out
Power Line SEA -6.0. Final Line SEA -6.5. Score Model SEA -6.5. These independent views are not averaged.
Opening spread WAS +3.5 → current +8.5. Opening total 46.5 → current 40.5.
Neutral ratings: SEA +6 / WAS -2. Home field 1.8. Side adjustment -0.3.
Schedule and injuries: espn. Retrieved Sep 27, 3:40 PM ET.
Market: DraftKings. Retrieved Sep 27, 12:57 PM ET. Numbers may have moved.
SEA: 2026 efficiency sample through week 2.
WAS: 2026 efficiency sample through week 2.
Share of offensive plays generating explosive gains.
Current-season pass defense; lower allowed EPA is stronger.