01
Blended QB grade · ZQuarterbacks
HOU0.07
IND0.31
HOU · C.J. Stroud: 102 current dropbacks. 51.0% current / 49.0% prior-season baseline. IND · Daniel Jones: 67 current dropbacks. 33.5% current / 66.5% prior-season baseline.
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/ THE NUMBERSIndependent. Game specific.Final Line and Projected Score are independent models.
Our Final Line and Projected Score come from two separate models.
The Final Line is our official handicap number, built from our team power ratings, home field and game-specific adjustments. The Projected Score comes from an independent offense-vs-defense scoring model that estimates the points scored by each team and its own implied margin.
Because they measure the game differently, the numbers will not always match. We do not average them. Our official side recommendations are based on the Final Line, while the Projected Score is used as an independent cross-check and game-flow estimate.
The gap compares the displayed Final Line with the independent scoring margin before its display rounding. Status describes the difference only; it does not change recommendations.
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Independent score model
OVER 48.5 Receiving Yards
Release preserved · not currently playable
The market sees IND +1.5.
Our number sees IND -0.5.
The Power Line begins at PK. Matchup adjustments take our Final Line to IND -0.5. The independent score projection puts Colts at 27.6 and Texans at 23.5.
Colts receive support from the personnel matchup. It contributes 0.3 points in their direction.
The matchup adjustments do not add an edge for Texans. Their offensive efficiency and the opposing pass defense, compared below, frame the challenge.
Two teams. The same measures. QB grades blend current performance with the prior-season baseline; other measures show current-season production.
HOU · C.J. Stroud: 102 current dropbacks. 51.0% current / 49.0% prior-season baseline. IND · Daniel Jones: 67 current dropbacks. 33.5% current / 66.5% prior-season baseline.
Current-season passing efficiency; higher is stronger.
Protection meets pressure. Blocking meets resistance.
Unit grades are standard deviations from league average; higher is stronger. Meters use a shared −3 to +3 scale. Grade advantage compares unit profiles and does not add points to our line.
Collin Wright · CB · Coach's Decision — Out
Nate Thomas · OT · Coach's Decision — Out
Brevin Jordan · TE · Coach's Decision — Out
Ed Ingram · G · Groin — Out
Jadeveon Clowney · DE · Knee — Out
Darius Slayton · WR · Coach's Decision — Out
Riley Leonard · QB · Coach's Decision — Out
DJ Giddens · RB · Coach's Decision — Out
Dalton Tucker · G · Coach's Decision — Out
Ashton Dulin · WR · Ankle — Out
Power Line PK. Final Line IND -0.5. Score Model IND -4.0. These independent views are not averaged.
Opening spread IND +1.5 → current +1.5. Opening total 45.5 → current 41.5.
Neutral ratings: HOU +3.5 / IND +1.5. Home field 2.1. Side adjustment +0.3.
Schedule and injuries: espn. Retrieved Sep 27, 3:40 PM ET.
Market: DraftKings. Retrieved Sep 27, 12:57 PM ET. Numbers may have moved.
HOU: 2026 efficiency sample through week 2.
IND: 2026 efficiency sample through week 2.
Share of offensive plays generating explosive gains.
Current-season pass defense; lower allowed EPA is stronger.