01
Blended QB grade · ZQuarterbacks
MIN0.45
TB-0.21
MIN · Kyler Murray: 7 current dropbacks. 3.5% current / 96.5% prior-season baseline. TB · Baker Mayfield: 76 current dropbacks. 38.0% current / 62.0% prior-season baseline.
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/ THE NUMBERSIndependent. Game specific.Final Line and Projected Score are independent models.
Our Final Line and Projected Score come from two separate models.
The Final Line is our official handicap number, built from our team power ratings, home field and game-specific adjustments. The Projected Score comes from an independent offense-vs-defense scoring model that estimates the points scored by each team and its own implied margin.
Because they measure the game differently, the numbers will not always match. We do not average them. Our official side recommendations are based on the Final Line, while the Projected Score is used as an independent cross-check and game-flow estimate.
The gap compares the displayed Final Line with the independent scoring margin before its display rounding. Status describes the difference only; it does not change recommendations.
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Independent score model
No qualifying player prop for this game.
The market sees TB +1.5.
Our number sees MIN -2.5.
The Power Line begins at MIN -2.0. Matchup adjustments take our Final Line to MIN -2.5. The independent score projection puts Buccaneers at 20.0 and Vikings at 22.8.
The matchup adjustments do not add an edge for Buccaneers. Their offensive efficiency and the opposing pass defense, compared below, frame the challenge.
Vikings receive support from the personnel matchup. It contributes 0.5 points in their direction.
Two teams. The same measures. QB grades blend current performance with the prior-season baseline; other measures show current-season production.
MIN · Kyler Murray: 7 current dropbacks. 3.5% current / 96.5% prior-season baseline. TB · Baker Mayfield: 76 current dropbacks. 38.0% current / 62.0% prior-season baseline.
Current-season passing efficiency; higher is stronger.
Protection meets pressure. Blocking meets resistance.
Unit grades are standard deviations from league average; higher is stronger. Meters use a shared −3 to +3 scale. Grade advantage compares unit profiles and does not add points to our line.
Why this matchup matters.
Tight end receiving
7.64 yards allowed per target
21.4% of team targets
No qualifying historical coverage advantage established.
Zemaiah Vaughn · CB · Coach's Decision — Out
Elijah Williams · DE · Coach's Decision — Out
Tavierre Thomas · S · Coach's Decision — Out
Jakobe Thomas · S · Coach's Decision — Out
Brett Thorson · P · Hamstring — Out
Josiah Trotter · LB · Shoulder — Out
Billy Schrauth · G · Coach's Decision — Out
Rakeem Nunez-Roches · DT · Coach's Decision — Out
Ayden Garnes · CB · Coach's Decision — Out
Luke Haggard · G · Coach's Decision — Out
Power Line MIN -2.0. Final Line MIN -2.5. Score Model MIN -3.0. These independent views are not averaged.
Opening spread TB -1.5 → current +1.5. Opening total 43.5 → current 42.5.
Neutral ratings: MIN +2 / TB -1.1. Home field 1.0. Side adjustment -0.5.
Schedule and injuries: espn. Retrieved Sep 27, 3:40 PM ET.
Market: DraftKings. Retrieved Sep 27, 3:40 PM ET. Numbers may have moved.
MIN: 2026 efficiency sample through week 2.
TB: 2026 efficiency sample through week 2.
Share of offensive plays generating explosive gains.
Current-season pass defense; lower allowed EPA is stronger.