01
Blended QB grade · ZQuarterbacks
BAL0.25
DAL0.67
BAL · Lamar Jackson: 66 current dropbacks. 33.0% current / 67.0% prior-season baseline. DAL · Dak Prescott: 72 current dropbacks. 36.0% current / 64.0% prior-season baseline.
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/ THE NUMBERSIndependent. Game specific.Final Line and Projected Score are independent models.
Our Final Line and Projected Score come from two separate models.
The Final Line is our official handicap number, built from our team power ratings, home field and game-specific adjustments. The Projected Score comes from an independent offense-vs-defense scoring model that estimates the points scored by each team and its own implied margin.
Because they measure the game differently, the numbers will not always match. We do not average them. Our official side recommendations are based on the Final Line, while the Projected Score is used as an independent cross-check and game-flow estimate.
The gap compares the displayed Final Line with the independent scoring margin before its display rounding. Status describes the difference only; it does not change recommendations.
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Independent score model
UNDER 240.5 Passing Yards
Release preserved · not currently playable
The market sees DAL +3.
Our number sees BAL -6.0.
The Power Line begins at BAL -5.5. Matchup adjustments take our Final Line to BAL -6.0. The independent score projection puts Cowboys at 27.3 and Ravens at 27.3.
The matchup adjustments do not add an edge for Cowboys. Their offensive efficiency and the opposing pass defense, compared below, frame the challenge.
Ravens receive support from the personnel matchup. It contributes 0.3 points in their direction.
Two teams. The same measures. QB grades blend current performance with the prior-season baseline; other measures show current-season production.
BAL · Lamar Jackson: 66 current dropbacks. 33.0% current / 67.0% prior-season baseline. DAL · Dak Prescott: 72 current dropbacks. 36.0% current / 64.0% prior-season baseline.
Current-season passing efficiency; higher is stronger.
Protection meets pressure. Blocking meets resistance.
Unit grades are standard deviations from league average; higher is stronger. Meters use a shared −3 to +3 scale. Grade advantage compares unit profiles and does not add points to our line.
Why this matchup matters.
Passing efficiency
7.89 yards allowed per pass attempt
33.00 dropbacks per game
No qualifying historical coverage advantage established.
Elijah Sarratt · WR · Coach's Decision — Out
Joe Fagnano · QB · Coach's Decision — Out
Ronnie Stanley · OT · Toe — Out
K'Von Wallace · CB · Coach's Decision — Out
Aeneas Peebles · DT · Coach's Decision — Out
DeMarvion Overshown · LB · Hamstring — Out
Malik Hooker · S · Forearm — Out
Ajani Cornelius · OT · Coach's Decision — Out
Cobie Durant · CB · Hamstring — Out
Camden Brown · WR · Coach's Decision — Out
Power Line BAL -5.5. Final Line BAL -6.0. Score Model PK. These independent views are not averaged.
Opening spread DAL +2.5 → current +3. Opening total 52.5 → current 53.5.
Neutral ratings: BAL +4.9 / DAL -0.7. Home field 0.0. Side adjustment -0.5.
Schedule and injuries: espn. Retrieved Sep 27, 3:40 PM ET.
Market: DraftKings. Retrieved Sep 27, 3:40 PM ET. Numbers may have moved.
BAL: 2026 efficiency sample through week 2.
DAL: 2026 efficiency sample through week 2.
Share of offensive plays generating explosive gains.
Current-season pass defense; lower allowed EPA is stronger.