Coverage research does not replace the game’s selected Player to Watch. No official player-prop recommendation.
2025 BASELINE / 2026 CURRENT · FULL HISTORICAL PROFILE
PLAYER-SCOUTING-V1 · COMBINED
2025 team(s): MIN · 2026: MIN · Team changed: NO
CURRENT ROLE: STABLE · target share: prior 15.6% / current 21.4%.
2026 usage wins; a ten-percentage-point change flags expansion/reduction.
Metric
2025 baseline (sample)
2026 current (sample)
Combined
Regressed
League
Quality
yards per reception
8.588 (51)
9.286 (7)
8.672
9.588
10.916
MEDIUM
receiving yards per target
6.636 (66)
7.222 (9)
6.707
6.943
7.387
MEDIUM
EPA per rush
-1.107 (1)
Unavailable (0)
-1.107
-0.024
-0.011
LOW
yards per carry
0.000 (1)
Unavailable (0)
0.000
4.448
4.504
LOW
average depth of target
4.985 (66)
5.444 (9)
5.040
6.027
7.878
MEDIUM
receiving TD / target
0.045 (66)
0.111 (9)
0.053
0.053
0.051
MEDIUM
rushing TD / carry
0.000 (1)
Unavailable (0)
0.000
0.035
0.036
LOW
target Success Rate
0.500 (66)
0.556 (9)
0.507
0.505
0.501
MEDIUM
rush Success Rate
0.000 (1)
Unavailable (0)
0.000
0.424
0.429
LOW
explosive rush rate
0.000 (1)
Unavailable (0)
0.000
0.109
0.112
LOW
catch rate
0.773 (66)
0.778 (9)
0.773
0.740
0.677
MEDIUM
EPA per target
0.214 (66)
0.716 (9)
0.274
0.246
0.194
MEDIUM
red-zone target rate
0.167 (66)
0.222 (9)
0.173
0.161
0.137
MEDIUM
depth · deep · receiving yards per target
29.000 (2)
Unavailable (0)
29.000
7.994
12.456
LOW
explosive reception rate
0.059 (51)
0.000 (7)
0.052
0.081
0.138
MEDIUM
depth · short · receiving yards per target
6.265 (49)
5.750 (4)
6.226
6.535
6.114
Full route counts, target-per-route, YPRR, alignment and directly observed single-high/two-high shells remain unavailable. Validated 2025 target-based coverage splits are shown separately; current 2026 coverage frequencies remain unverified.
Rates use targets, carries, dropbacks or receptions as labeled by metric; Success Rate = positive EPA. Historical skill carries forward; historical opportunity does not override current role.
PERFORMANCE BY COVERAGE — 2025
Targets and receiving efficiency from validated participation/PBP joins. Historical skill is separate from current opportunity.
Coverage
Targets
Receptions
Yards
YPT
Regressed YPT
Overall baseline
Overall Delta
Sample Quality
MAN
20
16
119.00
5.95
6.38
6.80
-0.43
MEDIUM
ZONE
46
35
319.00
6.93
6.90
6.80
0.09
HIGH
COVER 2
22
16
155.00
7.05
6.93
6.80
0.13
MEDIUM
COVER 1
15
13
107.00
7.13
6.95
6.80
0.14
LOW
COVER 6
2
1
6.00
3.00
6.46
6.80
-0.35
INSUFFICIENT
COVER 3
17
14
117.00
6.88
6.84
6.80
0.04
LOW
COVER 0
1
1
5.00
5.00
6.72
6.80
-0.09
INSUFFICIENT
COVER 4
4
4
41.00
10.25
7.38
6.80
0.57
INSUFFICIENT
HIGH: 30+ targets; MEDIUM: 20–29; LOW: 10–19, research only; INSUFFICIENT: under 10, no matchup claim. Routes, target-per-route, YPRR and alignment are unavailable.
