RESEARCH ONLY — NO AUTOMATIC COVERAGE FLAG The existing sample, role, freshness or matchup requirements are not all satisfied.
VIEW COVERAGE DATA
2025 coverage
Cover 3
Targets
27
Receiving yards
427
Regressed yards / target
12.78
Overall regressed baseline
8.69
2025 opponent frequency
23.0%
Sample status
MEDIUM
Continuity weight
100.0%
Internal matchup strength
0.00/100
Ranking bonus
0.00 / 2
Automatic flag
No
Rates adjusted toward the overall baseline to reduce small-sample noise. Internal strength is a research score, not a probability. Historical frequency is not materially above league; Current receiving role is insufficient or stale
2025 historical coverage, not measured 2026 usage. No route or alignment assumptions.
Observed 9/27/2026, 2:12:55 PM ET. Over -113 / Under -112.
This quote is stale; it is retained as historical context only.
STALE PROP · MARKET OBSERVATION
DeVonta Smith · Receiving Yards
PHI @ CHI · DraftKings
Edge %
Unavailable
Market line
72.5
FreeWinners projection
Unavailable
Directional edge (OVER)
Unavailable
NO PROP PLAY — market comparison.
Observed 9/27/2026, 2:12:55 PM ET. Over -111 / Under -113.
This quote is stale; it is retained as historical context only.
STALE PROP · MARKET OBSERVATION
DeVonta Smith · Receptions
PHI @ CHI · FanDuel
Edge %
Unavailable
Market line
5.5
FreeWinners projection
Unavailable
Directional edge (OVER)
Unavailable
NO PROP PLAY — market comparison.
Observed 9/27/2026, 2:13:08 PM ET. Over -122 / Under -108.
This quote is stale; it is retained as historical context only.
STALE PROP · MARKET OBSERVATION
DeVonta Smith · Receiving Yards
PHI @ CHI · FanDuel
Edge %
Unavailable
2025 BASELINE / 2026 CURRENT · FULL HISTORICAL PROFILE
PLAYER-SCOUTING-V1 · 2025
2025 team(s): PHI · 2026: PHI · Team changed: NO
CURRENT ROLE: STABLE · target share: prior 24.4% / current 33.9%.
2026 usage wins; a ten-percentage-point change flags expansion/reduction.
Metric
2025 baseline (sample)
yards per reception
13.091 (77)
receiving yards per target
8.920 (113)
average depth of target
11.991 (113)
receiving TD / target
0.035 (113)
target Success Rate
0.540 (113)
catch rate
0.681 (113)
EPA per target
0.490 (113)
red-zone target rate
0.097 (113)
depth · deep · receiving yards per target
15.952 (21)
explosive reception rate
0.182 (77)
depth · short · receiving yards per target
6.137 (51)
depth · behind · receiving yards per target
4.800 (10)
depth · intermediate · receiving yards per target
10.065 (31)
Full route counts, target-per-route, YPRR, alignment and directly observed single-high/two-high shells remain unavailable. Validated 2025 target-based coverage splits are shown separately; current 2026 coverage frequencies remain unverified.
Rates use targets, carries, dropbacks or receptions as labeled by metric; Success Rate = positive EPA. Historical skill carries forward; historical opportunity does not override current role.
PERFORMANCE BY COVERAGE — 2025
Targets and receiving efficiency from validated participation/PBP joins. Historical skill is separate from current opportunity.
Observed 9/27/2026, 2:13:08 PM ET. Over -114 / Under -114.
This quote is stale; it is retained as historical context only.
STALE PROP · MARKET OBSERVATION
DeVonta Smith · Receptions
PHI @ CHI · BetMGM
Edge %
Unavailable
Market line
5.5
FreeWinners projection
Unavailable
Directional edge (OVER)
Unavailable
NO PROP PLAY — market comparison.
Observed 9/27/2026, 2:13:13 PM ET. Over -110 / Under -120.
This quote is stale; it is retained as historical context only.
STALE PROP · MARKET OBSERVATION
DeVonta Smith · Receiving Yards
PHI @ CHI · BetMGM
Edge %
Unavailable
Market line
72.5
FreeWinners projection
Unavailable
Directional edge (OVER)
Unavailable
NO PROP PLAY — market comparison.
Observed 9/27/2026, 2:13:13 PM ET. Over -115 / Under -115.
This quote is stale; it is retained as historical context only.
STALE PROP · MARKET OBSERVATION
DeVonta Smith · Receptions
PHI @ CHI · Caesars
Edge %
Unavailable
Market line
5.5
FreeWinners projection
Unavailable
Directional edge (OVER)
Unavailable
NO PROP PLAY — market comparison.
Observed 9/27/2026, 2:13:57 PM ET. Over -120 / Under -109.
This quote is stale; it is retained as historical context only.
STALE PROP · MARKET OBSERVATION
DeVonta Smith · Receiving Yards
PHI @ CHI · Caesars
Edge %
Unavailable
Market line
72.5
FreeWinners projection
Unavailable
Directional edge (OVER)
Unavailable
NO PROP PLAY — market comparison.
Observed 9/26/2026, 8:55:19 PM ET. Over -114 / Under -114.
This quote is stale; it is retained as historical context only.
50
771.00
11.34
10.74
8.69
2.05
HIGH
COVER 3
27
19
427.00
15.81
12.78
8.69
4.10
MEDIUM
COVER 2
18
15
186.00
10.33
9.47
8.69
0.78
LOW
COVER 4
18
12
112.00
6.22
7.52
8.69
-1.17
LOW
MAN
45
27
237.00
5.27
6.32
8.69
-2.37
HIGH
COVER 0
15
10
83.00
5.53
7.33
8.69
-1.35
LOW
COVER 1
26
15
142.00
5.46
6.86
8.69
-1.82
MEDIUM
COVER 6
5
4
46.00
9.20
8.79
8.69
0.10
INSUFFICIENT
HIGH: 30+ targets; MEDIUM: 20–29; LOW: 10–19, research only; INSUFFICIENT: under 10, no matchup claim. Routes, target-per-route, YPRR and alignment are unavailable.
