WHY HE’S ON OUR RADAR DeVonta Smith has 33.9% of team targets in the current offense. The opponent has a supported weakness in wide receiver receiving.
2026 CURRENT ROLE
Snap share91.5%
Target share33.9%
Targets19
Red-zone targets / carries1
Through 2 completed games. Red-zone touches observed; no injury redistribution assumed.
COVERAGE MATCHUP · 2025 BASELINE
NEUTRAL
Cover 3: a favorable historical split
CHI used Cover 3 on 23.0% of its charted 2025 dropbacks. It retains HIGH defensive scheme continuity, making that history relevant.
No automatic coverage flag. The existing sample, role, freshness or matchup requirements are not all satisfied.
VIEW COVERAGE DATA
2025 coverage
Cover 3
Targets
27
Receiving yards
427
Regressed yards / target
12.78
Overall regressed baseline
8.69
2025 opponent frequency
23.0%
Sample status
MEDIUM
Continuity weight
100.0%
Internal matchup strength
0.00/100
Ranking bonus
0.00 / 2
Automatic flag
No
Rates adjusted toward the overall baseline to reduce small-sample noise. Internal strength is a research score, not a probability. Historical frequency is not materially above league
2025 historical coverage, not measured 2026 usage. No route or alignment assumptions.
FREEWINNERS PROJECTION
77.6 receiving yards · Experimental, not backtest validated · medium data quality
6.0 receptions · Experimental, not backtest validated · medium data quality
CURRENT PROP LINE
No current verified prop line available.
2025 BASELINE / 2026 CURRENT · VIEW PLAYER PROFILE
PLAYER-SCOUTING-V1 · COMBINED
2025 team(s): PHI · 2026: PHI · Team changed: NO
CURRENT ROLE: STABLE · target share: prior 24.4% / current 33.9%.
2026 usage wins; a ten-percentage-point change flags expansion/reduction.
Metric
2025 baseline (sample)
2026 current (sample)
Combined
Regressed
League
Quality
yards per reception
13.091 (77)
13.077 (13)
13.089
12.420
10.916
MEDIUM
receiving yards per target
8.920 (113)
8.947 (19)
8.924
8.567
7.387
HIGH
average depth of target
11.991 (113)
14.053 (19)
12.288
11.262
7.878
HIGH
receiving TD / target
0.035 (113)
0.053 (19)
0.038
0.041
0.051
HIGH
target Success Rate
0.540 (113)
0.632 (19)
0.553
0.541
0.501
HIGH
catch rate
0.681 (113)
0.684 (19)
0.682
0.681
0.677
HIGH
EPA per target
0.490 (113)
0.110 (19)
0.435
0.379
0.194
HIGH
red-zone target rate
0.097 (113)
0.053 (19)
0.091
0.102
0.137
HIGH
depth · deep · receiving yards per target
15.952 (21)
10.600 (5)
14.923
11.071
12.456
LOW
explosive reception rate
0.182 (77)
0.154 (13)
0.178
0.168
0.138
MEDIUM
depth · short · receiving yards per target
6.137 (51)
6.429 (7)
6.172
7.150
6.114
MEDIUM
depth · behind · receiving yards per target
4.800 (10)
0.000 (1)
4.364
7.660
4.565
LOW
ADVANCED ANALYTICS · SELECTION EVIDENCE
Data quality: medium. Current role certainty: medium. Matchup evidence: moderate.
The player’s current opportunity, historical efficiency and opposing defensive weakness support this research. No official prop recommendation is implied.
Observed 9/27/2026, 2:12:55 PM ET. Over -113 / Under -112.
This quote is stale; it is retained as historical context only.
Matchup reason: Existing 2025/2026 projection uses 2 current role games and CHI WR · receiving yards per target. A favorable defense rank is not required for manual research.
Role certainty: medium · Matchup evidence: moderate (supports) · Data quality: medium · Role: 33.9% of team targets
Injury / role evidence: Hollywood Brown out; replacement redistribution unverified
2025 baseline / 2026 role and projection evidence
2026 role 2 games; skill 113 prior + 19 current observations
Edge is shown from the displayed Over or Under direction. Official releases are recorded separately.
STALE PROP · MARKET OBSERVATION
DeVonta Smith · Receiving Yards
PHI @ CHI · DraftKings
Edge %
7.0%
Market line
72.5
FreeWinners projection
77.6
Directional edge (OVER)
+5.09
NO PROP PLAY — market comparison.
Observed 9/27/2026, 2:12:55 PM ET. Over -111 / Under -113.
This quote is stale; it is retained as historical context only.
Matchup reason: Existing 2025/2026 projection uses 2 current role games and CHI WR · receiving yards per target. A favorable defense rank is not required for manual research.
Role certainty: medium · Matchup evidence: moderate (supports) · Data quality: medium · 33.9% of team targets
2025 BASELINE / 2026 CURRENT · FULL HISTORICAL PROFILE
PLAYER-SCOUTING-V1 · 2026
2025 team(s): PHI · 2026: PHI · Team changed: NO
CURRENT ROLE: STABLE · target share: prior 24.4% / current 33.9%.
2026 usage wins; a ten-percentage-point change flags expansion/reduction.
Metric
2026 current (sample)
yards per reception
13.077 (13)
receiving yards per target
8.947 (19)
average depth of target
14.053 (19)
receiving TD / target
0.053 (19)
target Success Rate
0.632 (19)
catch rate
0.684 (19)
EPA per target
0.110 (19)
red-zone target rate
0.053 (19)
depth · deep · receiving yards per target
10.600 (5)
explosive reception rate
0.154 (13)
depth · short · receiving yards per target
6.429 (7)
depth · behind · receiving yards per target
0.000 (1)
depth · intermediate · receiving yards per target
12.000 (6)
Full route counts, target-per-route, YPRR, alignment and directly observed single-high/two-high shells remain unavailable. Validated 2025 target-based coverage splits are shown separately; current 2026 coverage frequencies remain unverified.
Rates use targets, carries, dropbacks or receptions as labeled by metric; Success Rate = positive EPA. Historical skill carries forward; historical opportunity does not override current role.
PERFORMANCE BY COVERAGE — 2025
Targets and receiving efficiency from validated participation/PBP joins. Historical skill is separate from current opportunity.
Full route counts, target-per-route, YPRR, alignment and directly observed single-high/two-high shells remain unavailable. Validated 2025 target-based coverage splits are shown separately; current 2026 coverage frequencies remain unverified.
Rates use targets, carries, dropbacks or receptions as labeled by metric; Success Rate = positive EPA. Historical skill carries forward; historical opportunity does not override current role.
Injury / role evidence: Hollywood Brown out; replacement redistribution unverified
2025 baseline / 2026 role and projection evidence
2026 role 2 games; skill 77 prior + 13 current observations
Edge is shown from the displayed Over or Under direction. Official releases are recorded separately.
STALE PROP · MARKET OBSERVATION
DeVonta Smith · Receptions
PHI @ CHI · FanDuel
Edge %
9.6%
Market line
5.5
FreeWinners projection
6.0
Directional edge (OVER)
+0.53
NO PROP PLAY — market comparison.
Observed 9/27/2026, 2:13:08 PM ET. Over -122 / Under -108.
This quote is stale; it is retained as historical context only.
Matchup reason: Existing 2025/2026 projection uses 2 current role games and CHI WR · receiving yards per target. A favorable defense rank is not required for manual research.
Role certainty: medium · Matchup evidence: moderate (supports) · Data quality: medium · Role: 33.9% of team targets
Injury / role evidence: Hollywood Brown out; replacement redistribution unverified
2025 baseline / 2026 role and projection evidence
2026 role 2 games; skill 113 prior + 19 current observations
Edge is shown from the displayed Over or Under direction. Official releases are recorded separately.
STALE PROP · MARKET OBSERVATION
DeVonta Smith · Receiving Yards
PHI @ CHI · FanDuel
Edge %
7.0%
Market line
72.5
FreeWinners projection
77.6
Directional edge (OVER)
+5.09
NO PROP PLAY — market comparison.
Observed 9/27/2026, 2:13:08 PM ET. Over -114 / Under -114.
This quote is stale; it is retained as historical context only.
Matchup reason: Existing 2025/2026 projection uses 2 current role games and CHI WR · receiving yards per target. A favorable defense rank is not required for manual research.
Role certainty: medium · Matchup evidence: moderate (supports) · Data quality: medium · Role: 33.9% of team targets
Injury / role evidence: Hollywood Brown out; replacement redistribution unverified
2025 baseline / 2026 role and projection evidence
2026 role 2 games; skill 77 prior + 13 current observations
Edge is shown from the displayed Over or Under direction. Official releases are recorded separately.
STALE PROP · MARKET OBSERVATION
DeVonta Smith · Receptions
PHI @ CHI · BetMGM
Edge %
9.6%
Market line
5.5
FreeWinners projection
6.0
Directional edge (OVER)
+0.53
NO PROP PLAY — market comparison.
Observed 9/27/2026, 2:13:13 PM ET. Over -110 / Under -120.
This quote is stale; it is retained as historical context only.
Matchup reason: Existing 2025/2026 projection uses 2 current role games and CHI WR · receiving yards per target. A favorable defense rank is not required for manual research.
Role certainty: medium · Matchup evidence: moderate (supports) · Data quality: medium · Role: 33.9% of team targets
Injury / role evidence: Hollywood Brown out; replacement redistribution unverified
2025 baseline / 2026 role and projection evidence
2026 role 2 games; skill 113 prior + 19 current observations
Edge is shown from the displayed Over or Under direction. Official releases are recorded separately.
STALE PROP · MARKET OBSERVATION
DeVonta Smith · Receiving Yards
PHI @ CHI · BetMGM
Edge %
7.0%
Market line
72.5
FreeWinners projection
77.6
Directional edge (OVER)
+5.09
NO PROP PLAY — market comparison.
Observed 9/27/2026, 2:13:13 PM ET. Over -115 / Under -115.
This quote is stale; it is retained as historical context only.
Matchup reason: Existing 2025/2026 projection uses 2 current role games and CHI WR · receiving yards per target. A favorable defense rank is not required for manual research.
Role certainty: medium · Matchup evidence: moderate (supports) · Data quality: medium · Role: 33.9% of team targets
Injury / role evidence: Hollywood Brown out; replacement redistribution unverified
2025 baseline / 2026 role and projection evidence
2026 role 2 games; skill 77 prior + 13 current observations
Edge is shown from the displayed Over or Under direction. Official releases are recorded separately.
STALE PROP · MARKET OBSERVATION
DeVonta Smith · Receptions
PHI @ CHI · Caesars
Edge %
9.6%
Market line
5.5
FreeWinners projection
6.0
Directional edge (OVER)
+0.53
NO PROP PLAY — market comparison.
Observed 9/27/2026, 2:13:57 PM ET. Over -120 / Under -109.
This quote is stale; it is retained as historical context only.
Matchup reason: Existing 2025/2026 projection uses 2 current role games and CHI WR · receiving yards per target. A favorable defense rank is not required for manual research.
Role certainty: medium · Matchup evidence: moderate (supports) · Data quality: medium · Role: 33.9% of team targets
Injury / role evidence: Hollywood Brown out; replacement redistribution unverified
2025 baseline / 2026 role and projection evidence
2026 role 2 games; skill 113 prior + 19 current observations
Edge is shown from the displayed Over or Under direction. Official releases are recorded separately.
STALE PROP · MARKET OBSERVATION
DeVonta Smith · Receiving Yards
PHI @ CHI · Caesars
Edge %
7.0%
Market line
72.5
FreeWinners projection
77.6
Directional edge (OVER)
+5.09
NO PROP PLAY — market comparison.
Observed 9/26/2026, 8:55:19 PM ET. Over -114 / Under -114.
This quote is stale; it is retained as historical context only.
Matchup reason: Existing 2025/2026 projection uses 2 current role games and CHI WR · receiving yards per target. A favorable defense rank is not required for manual research.
Role certainty: medium · Matchup evidence: moderate (supports) · Data quality: medium · Role: 33.9% of team targets
Injury / role evidence: Hollywood Brown out; replacement redistribution unverified
2025 baseline / 2026 role and projection evidence
2026 role 2 games; skill 77 prior + 13 current observations
Edge is shown from the displayed Over or Under direction. Official releases are recorded separately.
50
771.00
11.34
10.74
8.69
2.05
HIGH
COVER 3
27
19
427.00
15.81
12.78
8.69
4.10
MEDIUM
COVER 2
18
15
186.00
10.33
9.47
8.69
0.78
LOW
COVER 4
18
12
112.00
6.22
7.52
8.69
-1.17
LOW
MAN
45
27
237.00
5.27
6.32
8.69
-2.37
HIGH
COVER 0
15
10
83.00
5.53
7.33
8.69
-1.35
LOW
COVER 1
26
15
142.00
5.46
6.86
8.69
-1.82
MEDIUM
COVER 6
5
4
46.00
9.20
8.79
8.69
0.10
INSUFFICIENT
HIGH: 30+ targets; MEDIUM: 20–29; LOW: 10–19, research only; INSUFFICIENT: under 10, no matchup claim. Routes, target-per-route, YPRR and alignment are unavailable.
